Study says you don’t have to lose to win

New research from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has busted the myth that weight loss must be a linear downward trend to be successful.

The study, recently published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, analyzed data from more than 6,500 CSIRO Total Wellbeing Diet Online members over a year.

It found that even those who experienced weight fluctuations or temporary plateaus—periods where little to no weight loss is recorded—were still able to achieve clinically significant weight loss over time.

Two in three members lost at least 5% of their starting body weight by 12 months, while one in three lost at least 10% of their starting weight.

The study identified the most common weight loss patterns, each including at least one three-month plateau:

• 15% of members lost weight for six months, then maintained their weight for a further six months, resulting in an average 11kg weight loss after a year (12% of their starting body weight)
• 11% lost weight in the first three months, then maintained for nine months, losing 5 kg after a year (nearly 6% of their starting body weight)
• 9% lost weight for nine months, followed by three months of maintenance, resulting in an average 16 kg loss (17% of their starting body weight).

Lead researcher Dr. Gilly Hendrie said the findings reframe the concept of failure when it comes to weight loss. “The study gives hope to anyone who has ever felt disheartened throughout their weight loss journey. The reality is weight loss isn’t linear. Periods of maintenance and small regains are normal—but with persistence, meaningful results can happen.”

The study found that regular engagement with self-monitoring tools—like CSIRO Total Wellbeing Diet’s meal plans, food diaries, and progress trackers—led to better outcomes. Highly engaged members saw more than 21% weight loss over 12 months.

Dr. Hendrie said now is typically the time when many people hit a plateau and assume they’ve failed.

“It’s common to start strong in January, only to feel stuck by April,” she said. “But a plateau isn’t failure—it’s a sign to reset. Setting new goals, tracking food, and refocusing can make all the difference.”