A team of top trade officials visited New Delhi last month to finalise the terms of reference of the BTA talks and discuss the modalities
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India and the US will start face-to-face negotiations on the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA ) next month as a follow up to the virtual talks between officials that will start this week. Efforts are on to wrap up the first tranche of the pact, with a Fall 2025 deadline “as soon as possible”, senior government officials said.
At the same time, an import monitoring cell set up by the government is keeping a strict tab on possible import surges from countries like China, Vietnam and Indonesia due to the risk of merchandise dumping as a response to US reciprocal tariffs, for timely action, officials tracking the matter said.
May prompt exports
“A recent assessment carried out by the government highlighted that rising US costs may prompt exporters from countries like China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, all facing US trade deficits, to divert goods to India, potentially triggering import surges,” an official said.
Additionally, Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US goods could further increase the inflow of some US agricultural products into India, per the assessment.
The inter-Ministerial committee for monitoring import surges has been set up with representatives from the Department of Commerce, the DGFT, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs and DPIIT.
“The IMC is monitoring weekly as well as monthly import trends, both by commodities and countries,” the official said.
India was the first country to start negotiating a pact with the US after Trump announced his intention to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries with high import duties and trade surpluses against the US. In February, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to the US, both leaders agreed to negotiate a BTA to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion and finalise the first tranche of the pact by by Fall of 2025 (September-October 2025).
A team of top trade officials visited New Delhi last month to finalise the terms of reference of the BTA talks and discuss the modalities.
Fast-track discussions
“While the deadline for the first tranche of the BTA is the Fall of 2025, we will try to wrap it up as soon as possible. The fast-tracking of discussions may help in putting off Trump’s reciprocal tariffs beyond the 90-day pause period,” the official said.
On April 2, Trump announced reciprocal on most trade partners, including 26 per cent on India, but put the tariffs on hold on April 9 for 90-days to negotiate trade deals.
India’s chief negotiator for the India-US BTA and Commerce Additional Secretary Rajesh Agarwal confirmed that efforts were on to begin in-person negotiations for the BTA in May. “We hope to get into physical mode of negotiations may be in the second half of May. So we are on schedule as far as the BTA and its negotiations are concerned,” Agarwal said.
There are both concerns as well as opportunities for India in terms of the current reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said. “Negotiations are going on and we have taken a path of trade liberalisation and BTA. So if we follow that path, then I think not only India’s trade with the US will grow…that will also open up opportunities for India and for US as well,” he said.
Published on April 15, 2025
