Clouds begin to fill in formation as a low-pressure area, first of pre-monsoon season, gains traction over south Bay of Bengal on Monday. It is forecast to move to central Bay over next two to three days.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in
A low-pressure area has formed over central parts of south Bay of Bengal on Monday, with India Meteorological Department (IMD) putting it on a track towards towards west-central Bay over next two-three days while skirting East Coast.
businessline had hinted at likelihood of formation the low, first of pre-monsoon season on March 28 here https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/western-disturbance-set-to-pump-in-cooler-winds-briefly-bring-down-mercury-over-north-west-india/article69384877.ece
Heat wave advances
Formation of the ‘low’ was matched only progression of heat wave conditions over parts of North-West India from West India, with Saurashtra & Kutch and East Rajasthan to be impacted severely for next three days. Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely over West Rajasthan too. Heat wave conditions may spread pockets of Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh as well.
Rain for South, East
On Monday, a rain-driving trough ran out from a cyclonic circulation over south-east Bay to south Tamil Nadu across south-west Bay. Another trough meandered down from East Bihar to North Telangana while helpful cyclonic circulations hung over northeast Jharkhand and east Assam. The trough will moist easterlies from the Bay, push them into the heights to cool and precipitate.
Heavy rain for TN, Kerala
Heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Mahe on Monday and Tuesday and over Assam, Meghalaya on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds (40-50 km/hr) are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Kerala and Mahe for two days; over Karnataka for three days; and over East and North-East India for five days. Isolated hailstorm likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar and Jharkhand.
Western disturbance in
Meanwhile, a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect hills of North-West India from Tuesday. It may cause scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, and isolated to scattered rainfall over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for three days from Wednesday while it will be isolated over plains of North-West India on Thursday. Isolated hailstorms may line up over Jammu & Kashmir on Wednesday.
May guide track of ‘low’
Track of dominant western disturbance may decide where the ‘low’ over Bay is headed. Initial indications suggest it may scoop up ‘low’ and drag it over the waters close to the East Coast towards the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast over the next seven days. The upshot is easterly winds from the Bay will interact productively with westerlies from western disturbance.
Rain may spread out
This will drape a line of trough in a north-east to south-west direction over land where moist easterlies meet with cooler westerlies, facilitating convection, clouds, rain and thunderstorms. Many parts of East and East-Central India along with Peninsular India could likely benefit over next week to 10 days. The ‘low’ might get even pushed into Central India in phases.
Published on April 7, 2025
